As the United States gets hotter and drier, those most vulnerable are the least worried

By some estimates, the United States has experienced at least 26 droughts since 1980, and that number is expected to grow steadily as droughts become more frequent and intense.

This increase could lead to potentially serious consequences for agriculture, the economy and the environment, as well as for the health of those who live in drought-stricken regions.

Despite this, little has been known until now about the people who live in drought-prone regions, and even less about how they perceive risks posed by drought. Now, a new study by a team of public health preparedness experts with the Texas A&M University School of Public Health provides new insight into these issues.

“Water scarcity, malnutrition and food insecurity, along with infectious diseases spread through contaminated water and insects, such as ticks and mosquitoes, can lead to increased illness and death in affected areas,” said Matthew Boyce, PhD, an assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management. “We wanted to learn about those affected to help focus drought preparedness and educational efforts where the greatest contributions could be made.”

For the study, which was supported by a Seedling Research Grant from the Texas A&M Health Science Center (Texas A&M Health) and published in The Journal of Climate Change and Health, the team conducted a cross-sectional survey of 2,989 adults in the United States from April to June 2024.

Respondents were asked if they lived in an area that experienced drought, whether they considered drought to be a natural disaster and if they worried about being negatively affected by drought. The survey had 12 questions and was administered in English and Spanish in all 50 states.

“We found that the odds of reporting living in an area that experiences drought were higher for those residing in rural areas and for those ages 55 to 64,” said Christine Crudo Blackburn, PhD, an assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management. “This is noteworthy because rural areas have far less health care capacity than urban and suburban areas, and older populations are more vulnerable to many of the negative health impacts of drought because they are less physically resilient.”

The study also found that despite the higher odds of living in a drought-prone area and being especially vulnerable to drought’s effects, these respondents were less likely than others to worry about the negative effects of drought.

“This also was found to be true in the case of hurricanes, and it could be in part due to optimism bias, which occurs when people see themselves as less likely than others to be harmed by such an event,” Blackburn said.

Finally, those identifying as Republicans and Independents were significantly less likely to worry about the negative impact of drought than Democrats. Blackburn said this was unsurprising given the politicization of climate change in the United States.

“Now that this apparent mismatch in risk and concern has been identified, we hope additional research will be conducted to investigate how age and cultural identities shape perceptions of drought risk,” Boyce said. “That, combined with our findings, would help with more effective drought preparedness and interventions.”

Boyce and Blackburn are both on the faculty of the Department of Health Policy and Management and also faculty affiliates with the USA Center for Rural Public Health Preparedness—a research center at the School of Public Health dedicated to improving the planning for, response to, and recovery from disasters. Others involved with this study were center director Jason Moats, PhD, and center program coordinator Mayra Rico.